Rise and Fall of the First Financial Futures Market in China： The Case of Chinese Government Bond Futures

This paper studies the rise and fall of the first financial futures market in China. We compare the characteristics in the Chinese Government bond futures market with those in the US T-bond futures market. They differ in market design and structure, market governance, margin requirements, position limits, delivery process, and the way in which the settlement price is calculated. Furthermore, with a unique dataset, we show that prior to maturities of government bond futures, traders began to accumulate significant amounts of long positions for several selected contracts without the intention to offset, forcing short position holders to either purchase deliverable bonds or offset futures at highly inflated prices, causing higher market volatility and price disequilibrium in both spot and futures markets. Arbitrage opportunity arises and the market eventually collapses. The lessons learned from the suspension of the Chinese Government bond futures market offer an invaluable learning experience.     

Pre-seed government venture capital funds

This paper analyses a Pre-seed Fund (PSF) government venture capital (VC) program for the purpose of improving our understanding about effective public policy towards entrepreneurial finance. The PSF program is a public-private partnership started in 2002 for the purpose of fostering more investment in nascent high-tech entrepreneurial firms in Australia. Data from Venture Economics indicate PSFs are the primary provider of seed stage VC in Australia, but PSFs are not more likely to invest in high-tech firms than other types of VC funds. PSFs have smaller portfolios (number of investees) per manager than other types of VC funds, and are more likely to invest in firms resident in the same state, but do not stage and syndicate more frequently than other types of VC funds. Overall, therefore, the structure of the program has given rise to mixed performance in terms of finance and governance provided to nascent high-tech entrepreneurial firms. As well, there is also suggestive evidence that the PSF program diminishes the incentives for Innovation Investment Funds (a previously existing Australian government VC fund program) to invest in seed stage ventures, and hence competing government initiatives appear to be crowding out one another. Further evidence suggests that among the four PSFs in existence, one PSF has outperformed the other PSFs in regards to the investee firm patents and financial statement performance, even though this fund has invested less money and charged lower management fees than its counterparts. Hence, a further implication is that the impact of government-sponsored VC funds depends not only on the design of the program but also on the selection of the VC managers carrying out the investments.

法治水平、地方政府干预行为与金融发展

本文从法治约束地方政府对财产权保护和契约维护干预的角度论述了我国转轨过程中投资者保护和最终决定的金融发展水平。首先从分权改革制度设计的分析入手,论证分权后一定程度上成为独立行为主体的地方政府在约束缺失的情况下,为缓解财政压力向辖区内经济体伸出了掠夺之手。并且政府的权力边界在分权后的扩张干预了契约维护质量。本文利用1987-2004年的省级面板数据证实了伴随改革进程,法治水平的提高有力地约束了地方政府的干预行为,促进了金融的发展。最后文章提出随着改革的推进,尤其是进入市场经济制度日益完善的后改革时期,要继续大力推进规范政府行为的法治建设,更好地保护私人投资,金融才能健康发展。     

中国城市化影响政府公共支出的理论分析及实证

工业化向城市化转变的过程中,中国政府的目标发生了变化。工业化时期,政府动员一切可利用的资源发展经济,而在城市化阶段,政府转向福利支出目标。这一转变表现为经济建设费支出比重减小而公共财政支出比重不断增大。本文分析了中国城市化使政府公共支比重增大,并进行了实证分析。城市化率每增加1个百分点,公共财政支出比重就增加0.6293个百分点,且公共财政支出比重随收入差距扩大而增大。     

转轨时期地方政府债务风险及其防范

我国正处于经济转轨时期,由于受多种因素的影响,地方政府债务规模急速膨胀,债务风险凸显。地方政府债务风险,特别是隐性债务风险已经成为威胁我国经济安全与社会稳定的重要因素。研究我国地方政府债务风险的表现,并提出防范与控制的对策,具有非常重要的现实意义。     

我国房地产市场的调整及“救市”建议

2008年中国房地产业在经历了"高投资、高房价、高利润和高税收"之后,开始步入调整期.此次调整既有诸多不可控的外部因素,也有行业自身的原因.认真分析房地产市场周期调整的成因,因地制宜出台审慎、灵活、富有弹性的调控政策,并借市场调整之机优化结构、强化相关制度建设,是中国应对美国金融危机引发全球经济衰退的理性选择.也是中国房地产市场走向成熟及持续健康发展的关键.     

政治晋升激励机制下的地方重复建设——横向与纵向的比较分析

本文从政治晋升激励的角度考察了中国重复建设的内在机制。本文的分析表明,横向政治晋升激励的作用机制和纵向政治晋升激励的作用机制并不相同,由此得到落后地区是否进行重复建设的条件也就不相同。中国宏观经济环境中存在的价格扭曲放大了横向和纵向政治晋升激励的作用。为了降低落后地区进行重复建设的程度,中央政府需要对不同地区地方政府的官员采用不同的政治晋升激励,也需要努力推动自然资源和初级产品的价格体制改革。     

2009年地方债:制度博弈的分析视角

就地方债发行的法理基础、制度约束以及地方债属性而言,地方债趋同于公司债而非国债。我国在地方债发行的法理基础和相关配套约束制度缺位的前提下,2009年发行的地方债实质是地方政府、中央政府和国有银行等多方博弈的短期制度均衡,其发行机制和市场表现必然趋同于国债。完善我国地方债发行制度的现实路径应分两步走,即先完善地方债发行配套制度支持,后确立地方政府相对独立的财权。     

基于均值回归过程的多执行期基础设施项目政府担保价值研究

基础设施项目普遍具有较长的投资回收期,长期来看其产品(服务)价格一般趋于稳定值。考虑前人在研究政府担保价值过程中,其假设项目收入服从几何布朗运动存在的不足,为此,引入均值回归过程,并将政府担保单执行期价值衡量扩展至多执行期,构建了最低收入政府担保多执行期价值模型。采用动态规划方法讨论了均值回归过程对政府担保价值的影响,给出多执行期存在最大执行次数限制的政府担保价值测算案例,为政府科学估算政府担保价值提供依据。     

地方债放行:制度配套与有效监管

地方政府发债问题在讨论数年后再一次成为人们关注的焦点。本文从评价2009年财政部代发2000亿元地方债制度设计入手,介绍了地方债监管制度较为成熟的美国和日本的经验做法。在此基础上,系统阐述了我国地方政府直接发债所需的技术准备与制度配套,并从法律监督、行政监控和市场监管三个层次构建了地方债运行的风险防范体系,最后提出了基于我国国情的地方债渐进式开放模式。